Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $685 held · ends Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$684.75

Combined PnL

$33.77

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 72.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$522.06

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$33.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$162.68

Total Shares779

Combined PnL-$0.04

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 75.7¢	$324.19	$355.35	+$31.16	59% 1831-1285 (3116)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$157.49	$159.08	+$1.59	50% 650-644 (1294)
Istaroth	Noavg 74¢	$249.47	$150.51	+$2.4	20% 322-1323 (1645)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$22.81	$16.19	+$0.25	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.13	$1.9	-$1.23	53% 6562-5775 (12337)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.1	$1.7	-$0.4	62% 1444-893 (2337)

241532532432

Invested

$324.19

Value

$355.35

PnL

+$31.16

Record

59%

1831-1285 (3116)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$157.49

Value

$159.08

PnL

+$1.59

Record

50%

650-644 (1294)

Istaroth

Invested

$249.47

Value

$150.51

PnL

+$2.4

Record

20%

322-1323 (1645)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.81

Value

$16.19

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

6562-5775 (12337)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

1444-893 (2337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.