Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $139 held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$139.02

Combined PnL

-$48.82

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 98.6¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$134.06

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$9.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.96

Total Shares496

Combined PnL-$58.76

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$55.31	$44.52	+$6.36	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$20.83	$23.3	+$2.48	71% 954-392 (1346)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$16.73	$16.71	-$0.02	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.82	+$0.02	35% 358-677 (1035)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$9.83	$9.82	-$0.01	36% 339-612 (951)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$8.89	$9.8	+$0.91	30% 1182-2734 (3916)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.6	$9.8	+$0.2	39% 334-532 (866)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.32	$5.33	+$0.01	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$63.72	$4.96	-$58.76	61% 1205-765 (1970)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$4.95	$4.96	+$0.01	52% 923-846 (1769)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.31

Value

$44.52

PnL

+$6.36

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.83

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$2.48

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$16.73

Value

$16.71

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

358-677 (1035)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

339-612 (951)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.91

Record

30%

1182-2734 (3916)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.72

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$58.76

Record

61%

1205-765 (1970)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.