Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on November 15?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $329 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$329.27

Combined PnL

$0.09

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$326.55

Total Shares326

Combined PnL+$0.95

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.72

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$0.86

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.7¢	$185.28	$185.76	+$0.48	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$50.63	$50.78	+$0.16	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$45.59	$45.81	+$0.22	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.2	$29.18	-$0.02	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.91	$9.99	+$0.08	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5	$5.03	+$0.03	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.37	$1.11	+$0.74	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$5.75	$0.62	-$0.51	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.18	$0.53	+$0.36	60% 874-593 (1467)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.36	-$1.45	14% 103-624 (727)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.09	$0.09	+$0	57% 836-638 (1474)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$185.28

Value

$185.76

PnL

+$0.48

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$50.63

Value

$50.78

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$45.59

Value

$45.81

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.74

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.51

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.36

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.45

Record

14%

103-624 (727)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.