Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 13?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 97¢ · $374 held · ended Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$373.6

Combined PnL

-$16.9

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 97.1¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$366.07

Total Shares374

Combined PnL+$12.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.52

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$29.46

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.2¢	$343.5	$264.6	+$11.51	38% 543-874 (1417)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$33.28	$33.94	+$0.66	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$22.9	$22.36	-$0.15	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$14.67	$15	+$0.33	58% 656-481 (1137)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.54	$7.52	-$29.46	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.8	$7.02	+$0.21	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$5	$5.08	+$0.08	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.07	$5.01	-$0.06	48% 684-728 (1412)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.99	$4.98	-$0.01	32% 222-462 (684)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.95	$4.91	-$0.05	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$3.14	$3.18	+$0.04	62% 657-409 (1066)

241532532432

Invested

$343.5

Value

$264.6

PnL

+$11.51

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.28

Value

$33.94

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.9

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.54

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$29.46

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

32%

222-462 (684)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.04

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.