Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on November 2?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$118.58
-$4.37
99.3¢ → 95¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $57.9 | $55.1 | -$2.8 | 37% 1392-2373 (3765) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $45.65 | $43.5 | -$2.15 | 46% 1568-1827 (3395) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.41 | $19.98 | +$0.58 | 35% 704-1298 (2002) |
Invested
$57.9
Value
$55.1
PnL
-$2.8
Record
37%
1392-2373 (3765)
Invested
$45.65
Value
$43.5
PnL
-$2.15
Record
46%
1568-1827 (3395)
Invested
$19.41
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.58
Record
35%
704-1298 (2002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.