Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 16?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$65.39

Combined PnL

-$18.79

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$64.72

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$18.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.29	$31.33	+$0.05	48% 1303-1431 (2734)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$12.28	$12.3	+$0.02	50% 919-927 (1846)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.53	$10.55	+$0.02	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$7.01	$7.03	+$0.02	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1758-24 (1782)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$82.19	$0.34	-$9.58	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$65.67	$0.17	-$7.74	28% 3345-8619 (11964)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.09	-$0.92	14% 110-655 (765)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.55	$0.05	-$0.49	38% 3892-6366 (10258)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.2	$0.02	-$0.18	23% 821-2761 (3582)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$31.29

Value

$31.33

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.28

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

919-927 (1846)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1758-24 (1782)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.19

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$9.58

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.67

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.74

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.92

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.49

Record

38%

3892-6366 (10258)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.18

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.