Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 15?

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$232.4

Combined PnL

-$52.9

Smart Money Entry

21.2¢ → 0.3¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$90.53

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$81.3

No9 traders

Total Value$141.86

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$28.4

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 40.9¢	$148.23	$72.57	-$75.66	55% 1217-1009 (2226)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 52.4¢	$26.2	$49.9	+$23.7	30% 1043-2405 (3448)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$25.51	$28.07	+$2.56	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.99	$24.48	-$0.51	35% 264-485 (749)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$122.06	$12.65	+$19.36	32% 168-365 (533)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 77¢	$10.21	$11.42	+$1.21	51% 809-769 (1578)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.2	$8	+$2.8	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 77¢	$5.8	$5.66	-$0.13	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.83	$5.07	-$0.6	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77¢	$5.27	$5.05	-$0.22	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 76¢	$4.63	$4.21	-$0.42	58% 726-520 (1246)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$2.38	$2.07	-$0.31	42% 2632-3663 (6295)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$43.1	$1.41	-$0.51	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$1.6	$0.93	-$0.67	50% 723-711 (1434)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$36.59	$0.8	-$20.39	40% 660-990 (1650)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.27	$0.07	-$0.21	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$2.9	$0.03	-$2.88	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.05	$0.01	-$0.04	49% 758-801 (1559)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$148.23

Value

$72.57

PnL

-$75.66

Record

55%

1217-1009 (2226)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$26.2

Value

$49.9

PnL

+$23.7

Record

30%

1043-2405 (3448)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$25.51

Value

$28.07

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.48

PnL

-$0.51

Record

35%

264-485 (749)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.06

Value

$12.65

PnL

+$19.36

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$1.21

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

+$2.8

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.22

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.42

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.31

Record

42%

2632-3663 (6295)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.1

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.51

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.59

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$20.39

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.88

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.