Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 12?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 2.2¢ · $32 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$32.37

Combined PnL

-$6.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$27.33

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.03

Total Shares239

Combined PnL-$6.67

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.86	-$0.04	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$4.98	$4.98	+$0	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$98.59	$3.61	-$3.02	43% 802-1042 (1844)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 398-3 (401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.31	$0.39	+$0.08	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.27	$0.24	+$0.04	49% 492-514 (1006)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.56	$0.24	+$0.03	65% 444-243 (687)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.04	$0.18	-$3.86	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$5.84	$0.13	+$0.02	48% 508-561 (1069)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.13	+$0.02	67% 435-211 (646)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$10.4	$0.12	+$0.03	51% 474-453 (927)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.86

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.59

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$3.02

Record

43%

802-1042 (1844)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

492-514 (1006)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.04

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.86

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

508-561 (1069)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

67%

435-211 (646)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

474-453 (927)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.4%

2.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2880.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

2980.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.