Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 12?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$328.47

Combined PnL

$60.48

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$154.44

Total Shares378

Combined PnL+$39.98

No6 traders

Total Value$110.44

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$20.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 41.7¢	$96.43	$101.74	+$5.31	61% 1153-751 (1904)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$65.04	$63.59	-$1.45	77% 632-192 (824)
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$34.81	$42.7	+$7.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$30.23	$20.89	-$9.34
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 45.9¢	$37.34	$42.32	+$4.98	82% 46-10 (56)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$102.83	$32.66	+$19.4	43% 802-1042 (1844)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 36.4¢	$12.87	$22.09	+$9.22	34% 370-706 (1076)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$18.2	$20.8	+$2.6	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.29	$19.96	+$15.67	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 48¢	$8.76	$12.01	+$3.25	66% 4155-2178 (6333)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$9.61	$10.62	+$1.01	55% 729-596 (1325)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$3.18	$2.6	-$0.57	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	$13.24	$0.03	+$0.25	49% 492-514 (1006)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.03	-$0.08	51% 474-453 (927)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$1.46	$0.03	-$0.58	53% 459-411 (870)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$96.43

Value

$101.74

PnL

+$5.31

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$65.04

Value

$63.59

PnL

-$1.45

Record

77%

632-192 (824)

Both legs:

No$34.8151¢+$7.89

Yes$30.2354.3¢-$9.34

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$37.34

Value

$42.32

PnL

+$4.98

Record

82%

46-10 (56)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Yes

Invested

$102.83

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$19.4

Record

43%

802-1042 (1844)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$9.22

Record

34%

370-706 (1076)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$20.8

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$15.67

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$3.25

Record

66%

4155-2178 (6333)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$10.62

PnL

+$1.01

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.57

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.24

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

492-514 (1006)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

474-453 (927)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

459-411 (870)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.