Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 10?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$131.14

Combined PnL

$0.37

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 99.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$115.67

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$7.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.47

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$7.05

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97¢	$40.17	$40.58	+$0.41	34% 150-294 (444)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$26.59	$31.31	+$4.72	89% 409-53 (462)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$24.99	$25.52	+$0.53	8% 32-363 (395)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 68¢	$14.27	$16.15	+$1.89	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$18.45	$12.1	-$6.35	21% 132-485 (617)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$2.43	$2.27	-$0.15	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 82¢	$2.23	$2.09	-$0.14	35% 138-259 (397)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.1	-$0.55	2% 12-662 (674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$40.17

Value

$40.58

PnL

+$0.41

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.59

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$4.72

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$0.53

Record

32-363 (395)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.27

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$1.89

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.45

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$6.35

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$0.14

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.55

Record

12-662 (674)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.