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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 29?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$26.49
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares52
Combined PnL-$26.49
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 57%No — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $26.49 | — | -$26.49 | 59% 1723-1189 (2912) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20945-13330 (34275) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1752-1734 (3486) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13544-10382 (23926) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4395-9448 (13843) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15264-27350 (42614) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$26.49
Value
—
PnL
-$26.49
Record
59%
1723-1189 (2912)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20945-13330 (34275)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1752-1734 (3486)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13544-10382 (23926)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4395-9448 (13843)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15264-27350 (42614)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcf11b567...2c2363
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-october-29-2026-70-71f