Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 9?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 11¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$30.99
-$8.96
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $16.8 | $16.79 | +$0.11 | 57% 24781-18350 (43131) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $17.62 | $10.48 | -$6.44 | 25% 2365-7040 (9405) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $4.4 | $2.2 | -$2.2 | 61% 725-458 (1183) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $1.55 | $0.96 | -$0.53 | 53% 5080-4437 (9517) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.57 | $0.57 | +$0.1 | 46% 6642-7775 (14417) |
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.79
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
24781-18350 (43131)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$10.48
PnL
-$6.44
Record
25%
2365-7040 (9405)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$2.2
Record
61%
725-458 (1183)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.53
Record
53%
5080-4437 (9517)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.57
PnL
+$0.1
Record
46%
6642-7775 (14417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.