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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on November 8?

Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$9.79

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares111
Combined PnL-$9.79
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
0X
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$9.31

Record

69%

16764-7368 (24132)

LU
luciebotCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

—

PnL

-$0.04

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$0.44

Record

32%

21778-45614 (67392)

balthazarCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

QW
qwen300.fund<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

NO
northdrawer<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

25722-21534 (47256)

SM
smallreceipt<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

16720-20376 (37096)

0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6642-7775 (14417)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x7d19e223...a0a548
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-november-8-2026-66-67f

Traders in this Market

0X

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

CTR

Yes — $0

-$9.31
LU

luciebot

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.04
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.44

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
QW

qwen300.fund

No — $0

+$0
NO

northdrawer

No — $0

+$0
SM

smallreceipt

No — $0

+$0
0X

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $0

+$0
0X

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $0

+$0
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