Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 7?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $380 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$380.31
-$17.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $329.19 | $328.76 | -$41.93 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.2¢ | $123.71 | $238.3 | +$128.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $219.2 | $90.45 | -$170.24 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $48.45 | $26.35 | -$5.98 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $32.16 | $22.25 | -$11.31 | 61% 687-436 (1123) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.52 | $1.52 | +$0.05 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
Invested
$329.19
Value
$328.76
PnL
-$41.93
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.45
Value
$26.35
PnL
-$5.98
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$32.16
Value
$22.25
PnL
-$11.31
Record
61%
687-436 (1123)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$1.52
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.