Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 6?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 22¢ · $966 held · ended Nov 6

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$966.31

Combined PnL

$11.44

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 22¢

-58% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$847.84

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL+$70.69

Yes5 traders

Total Value$118.46

Total Shares421

Combined PnL-$59.25

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Noavg 49.2¢	$350.83	$577.38	+$107.07	53% 4120-3688 (7808)
ZW zwaaanCTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$102.65	$172.34	-$7.45	53% 137-123 (260)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 53.7¢	$132.41	$46.05	-$86.36	56% 748-580 (1328)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.09	$43.39	+$33.98	36% 1163-2110 (3273)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$65.94	$42.33	-$23.61	54% 10692-9211 (19903)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$20.81	$35.69	+$14.87	32% 2235-4744 (6979)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$28.34	$27.13	-$1.21	62% 672-410 (1082)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$3.78	$6.48	+$2.7	26% 7379-21165 (28544)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$6.1	-$12.5	53% 23878-20983 (44861)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$20.15	$5.96	-$8.79	53% 8641-7736 (16377)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.18	$1.57	-$1.62	53% 12645-11132 (23777)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$5.55	$0.96	-$2.57	45% 1848-2240 (4088)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 27.2¢	$10.73	$0.93	-$3.08	44% 2330-2951 (5281)

BilberryCTR

Invested

$350.83

Value

$577.38

PnL

+$107.07

Record

53%

4120-3688 (7808)

zwaaanCTR

Invested

$102.65

Value

$172.34

PnL

-$7.45

Record

53%

137-123 (260)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$132.41

Value

$46.05

PnL

-$86.36

Record

56%

748-580 (1328)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$43.39

PnL

+$33.98

Record

36%

1163-2110 (3273)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$65.94

Value

$42.33

PnL

-$23.61

Record

54%

10692-9211 (19903)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$20.81

Value

$35.69

PnL

+$14.87

Record

32%

2235-4744 (6979)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.34

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$1.21

Record

62%

672-410 (1082)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$2.7

Record

26%

7379-21165 (28544)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$12.5

Record

53%

23878-20983 (44861)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$20.15

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$8.79

Record

53%

8641-7736 (16377)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$1.62

Record

53%

12645-11132 (23777)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$2.57

Record

45%

1848-2240 (4088)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.73

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$3.08

Record

44%

2330-2951 (5281)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.