Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on November 2?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 83¢ · $317 held · ended Nov 2

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$316.96

Combined PnL

$24

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 82.9¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$289.96

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$41.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$27

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$17.23

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Noavg 76¢	$126.66	$159.74	+$33.08	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 85.2¢	$120.97	$97.71	+$4.96	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$29.98	$27	-$17.23	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$8.42	$8.35	-$0.07	60% 7180-4743 (11923)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 43.3¢	$4.33	$8.3	+$3.97	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$6.64	$6.63	-$0.01	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$5.39	$5.01	-$0.38	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$8.88	$4.23	-$0.32	41% 943-1365 (2308)

Bilberry

Invested

$126.66

Value

$159.74

PnL

+$33.08

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

ghorrock

Invested

$120.97

Value

$97.71

PnL

+$4.96

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.98

Value

$27

PnL

-$17.23

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.42

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

7180-4743 (11923)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$3.97

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.88

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.32

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.6%

82.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.