Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 1.0¢ · $314 held · ended Oct 31

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$314.38

Combined PnL

-$133.71

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 1¢

-98% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$238.19

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$29.23

No2 traders

Total Value$76.19

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$162.93

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 36¢	$97.85	$228.52	+$25.1	59% 1862-1301 (3163)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 57.2¢	$168.02	$74.69	-$92.07	19% 335-1419 (1754)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Yesavg 55.1¢	$5.55	$9.67	+$4.12	55% 18159-14741 (32900)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$72.37	$1.51	-$70.86	55% 439-359 (798)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$97.85

Value

$228.52

PnL

+$25.1

Record

59%

1862-1301 (3163)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$168.02

Value

$74.69

PnL

-$92.07

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$4.12

Record

55%

18159-14741 (32900)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$72.37

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$70.86

Record

55%

439-359 (798)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.