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YesYesNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100NoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$3.7
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares299
Combined PnL-$3.7
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 5719-4199 (9918) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 556-647 (1203) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
BE
berlinskiesCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
5719-4199 (9918)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
556-647 (1203)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa4edf61d...f0e602
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-october-27-2026-18c