Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 8?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 35¢ · $406 held · ends Nov 8

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$406.24

Combined PnL

$38.53

Smart Money Entry

31.6¢ → 35¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$398.17

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$38.25

No1 trader

Total Value$8.07

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.29

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$279.73	$320.64	+$40.9	37% 903-1557 (2460)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.7¢	$72.33	$69.04	-$3.29	32% 2247-4752 (6999)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$7.86	$8.49	+$0.63	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$14.56	$8.07	+$0.29	58% 21687-15792 (37479)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$279.73

Value

$320.64

PnL

+$40.9

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.33

Value

$69.04

PnL

-$3.29

Record

32%

2247-4752 (6999)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.