Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $6 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$6.23
-$4.62
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.17 | $4.54 | +$4.37 | 53% 12756-11431 (24187) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.35 | $1.13 | +$0.78 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.12 | $0.51 | +$0.4 | 36% 6031-10818 (16849) |
LU luciebotCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $112.75 | $0.06 | -$10.16 | 28% 3035-7859 (10894) |
Invested
$0.17
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$4.37
Record
53%
12756-11431 (24187)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.78
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.4
Record
36%
6031-10818 (16849)
Invested
$112.75
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.16
Record
28%
3035-7859 (10894)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.