Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C on November 16?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$169.21

Combined PnL

-$45.45

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$168.42

Total Shares169

Combined PnL+$7.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares546

Combined PnL-$53.13

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$44.49	$45.73	+$1.24	39% 344-532 (876)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.48	$40.1	+$0.62	50% 932-930 (1862)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$23.84	$27.34	+$3.5	71% 954-392 (1346)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$23.75	$24.85	+$1.1	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$15.19	$15.43	+$0.24	52% 923-846 (1769)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$9.02	$9.91	+$0.89	35% 358-677 (1035)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.99	$5.07	+$0.08	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$53.56	$0.27	-$53.3	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	47% 898-1015 (1913)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$12.33	$0.01	+$0.17	65% 4379-2399 (6778)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$44.49

Value

$45.73

PnL

+$1.24

Record

39%

344-532 (876)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$39.48

Value

$40.1

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.84

Value

$27.34

PnL

+$3.5

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$24.85

PnL

+$1.1

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.43

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$0.89

Record

35%

358-677 (1035)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.56

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$53.3

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.17

Record

65%

4379-2399 (6778)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.