Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 15?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 97¢ · $284 held · ends Nov 15

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$283.72

Combined PnL

-$1.01

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$135.51

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$34.79

No7 traders

Total Value$44.88

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$35.79

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$81.22	$103.33	+$22.12	71% 920-377 (1297)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.2¢	$42.39	$67.65	+$25.26
└ No leg	Noavg 33.7¢	$38.83	$35.68	-$3.15
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 41.7¢	$46.87	$31.57	+$14.91	42% 763-1074 (1837)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$32.74	$22.7	-$10.04	57% 812-617 (1429)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 88.8¢	$20.3	$20.91	+$0.61	47% 872-965 (1837)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$11.6	$19.07	+$7.46	50% 895-904 (1799)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$12.45	$17.66	+$5.21	42% 5184-7017 (12201)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$10.17	$15.11	+$4.94	52% 917-858 (1775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$53.4	$13.71	-$39.69	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$13.8	$13.05	-$0.76	58% 840-598 (1438)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 74.6¢	$10.18	$11.92	+$1.74	47% 1212-1372 (2584)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$5.56	$6.23	+$0.67	49% 828-851 (1679)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$77.21	$2.51	+$3.36	65% 4359-2378 (6737)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$4.05	$1.96	-$2.09	52% 883-806 (1689)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$2.12	$1.74	-$0.38	59% 844-575 (1419)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$1.24	$1.45	+$12.72	24% 767-2452 (3219)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$0.48	$0.81	+$0.33	28% 3272-8320 (11592)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.22

Value

$103.33

PnL

+$22.12

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

Both legs:

Yes$42.3943.2¢+$25.26

No$38.8333.7¢-$3.15

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.87

Value

$31.57

PnL

+$14.91

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$32.74

Value

$22.7

PnL

-$10.04

Record

57%

812-617 (1429)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

872-965 (1837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.6

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$7.46

Record

50%

895-904 (1799)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$5.21

Record

42%

5184-7017 (12201)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$4.94

Record

52%

917-858 (1775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$39.69

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$0.76

Record

58%

840-598 (1438)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.18

Value

$11.92

PnL

+$1.74

Record

47%

1212-1372 (2584)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

828-851 (1679)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$77.21

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$3.36

Record

65%

4359-2378 (6737)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$2.09

Record

52%

883-806 (1689)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.38

Record

59%

844-575 (1419)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$12.72

Record

24%

767-2452 (3219)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0.33

Record

28%

3272-8320 (11592)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.