Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 14?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 98¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$200.79

Combined PnL

-$18.99

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 98.4¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$187.13

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$2.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.65

Total Shares333

Combined PnL-$16.95

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.1¢	$125.65	$124.2	-$1.45	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$20.12	$19.94	-$0.18	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.85	$19.72	-$0.13	39% 216-342 (558)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$10.49	+$0.34	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.04	$5	-$0.05	49% 731-768 (1499)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$4.8	$4.68	-$0.11	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$4.11	$4.01	-$0.1	58% 699-503 (1202)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.04	$2.09	-$11.96	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.1	$2.08	-$0.02	27% 667-1774 (2441)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.2	$0.92	-$5.28	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.21	$0.15	-$0.06	51% 782-754 (1536)

241532532432

Invested

$125.65

Value

$124.2

PnL

-$1.45

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$20.12

Value

$19.94

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.13

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$10.49

PnL

+$0.34

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.11

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.04

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$11.96

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$5.28

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.