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YesYesNoYes
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$91.72
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares780
Combined PnL-$91.72
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $45.38 | — | -$77.16 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $14.56 | — | -$14.56 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTRInvested
$45.38
Value
—
PnL
-$77.16
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$14.56
Value
—
PnL
-$14.56
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x924325d7...248f44
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-november-1-2026-23c