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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoNoNo
LornaPredicts<$100YesYes
IstarothCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 30?
Resolved Yes. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$24.21
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares49
Combined PnL-$24.21
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 75%Yes — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $24.21 | — | -$24.21 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$24.21
Value
—
PnL
-$24.21
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcd36e1db...074f0a
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-october-30-2026-23c