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YesNo
Lucerys<$100NoNoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 7?
Resolved No. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0.56
Combined PnL
-$31.89
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares478
Combined PnL-$31.9
No6 traders
Total Value$0.56
Total Shares1
Combined PnL+$0.01
Yes — 14%No — 86%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $31.9 | — | -$31.9 | 37% 913-1562 (2475) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | No | $0.56 | $0.56 | +$0.01 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 46% 3898-4513 (8411) |
GO god83743894<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$31.9
Value
—
PnL
-$31.9
Record
37%
913-1562 (2475)
0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.56
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3898-4513 (8411)
GO
god83743894<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
SM
smallreceipt<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5a2e8b22...ce2aa6
Slug
highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-november-7-2026-21c