Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 6?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $614 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$613.94
$90.61
21.3¢ → 97.7¢
+358% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $114.19 | $438.79 | +$81.14 | 38% 866-1436 (2302) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $66.92 | $88.2 | +$2.04 | 13% 549-3630 (4179) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $34.85 | $73.14 | +$3.38 | 57% 735-562 (1297) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $36.87 | $13.8 | +$4.06 | 58% 21381-15510 (36891) |
Invested
$114.19
Value
$438.79
PnL
+$81.14
Record
38%
866-1436 (2302)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$66.92
Value
$88.2
PnL
+$2.04
Record
13%
549-3630 (4179)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$73.14
PnL
+$3.38
Record
57%
735-562 (1297)
Invested
$36.87
Value
$13.8
PnL
+$4.06
Record
58%
21381-15510 (36891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.