Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $646 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$646.09
$12.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $626 | $525.3 | -$100.69 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.5¢ | $382.04 | $384.62 | +$2.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $243.96 | $140.68 | -$103.28 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $38.43 | $44.04 | +$5.61 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $46.07 | $35.36 | +$5.88 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $29.4 | $33.6 | +$4.2 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $10.53 | $7.8 | -$2.73 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
Invested
$626
Value
$525.3
PnL
-$100.69
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.43
Value
$44.04
PnL
+$5.61
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$46.07
Value
$35.36
PnL
+$5.88
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$33.6
PnL
+$4.2
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.