Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $41 held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$40.58

Combined PnL

-$489.84

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 0.9¢

-98% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$29.73

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$5.77

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.85

Total Shares1,085

Combined PnL-$495.61

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$19.82	+$5	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.91	+$0.77	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 48.1¢	$475.46	$9.89	-$472	50% 673-674 (1347)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$24	$0.96	-$23.62	50% 1907-1873 (3780)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$5

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$0.77

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$475.46

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$472

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$23.62

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4917.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

5017.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.