Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$94.15

Combined PnL

-$57.98

Smart Money Entry

19.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$80.78

Total Shares721

Combined PnL-$56.25

No1 trader

Total Value$13.37

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.73

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26.5¢	$110.98	$46.92	-$64.06	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14	$17.25	+$3.25	50% 919-925 (1844)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$15.1	$13.37	-$1.73	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7	$8.62	+$1.62	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.27	$4.03	+$0.76	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$1.12	+$0.21	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.76	$1.08	+$1.64	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$1.06	+$0.2	17% 858-4055 (4913)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.43	$0.53	+$0.1	25% 1356-4124 (5480)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.13	$0.16	+$0.03	24% 788-2560 (3348)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.98

Value

$46.92

PnL

-$64.06

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$3.25

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$1.73

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$1.62

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.27

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.76

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.21

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.76

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$1.64

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.2

Record

17%

858-4055 (4913)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.1

Record

25%

1356-4124 (5480)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.03

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.