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YesYesYes
Lucerys<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$6.91
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares76
Combined PnL-$6.91
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $4.38 | — | -$5.62 | 20% 985-3874 (4859) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $0.32 | — | -$0.82 | 22% 657-2369 (3026) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.46 | 22% 3495-12141 (15636) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24497 (43226) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6652-7812 (14464) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$4.38
Value
—
PnL
-$5.62
Record
20%
985-3874 (4859)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$0.32
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
22%
657-2369 (3026)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.46
Record
22%
3495-12141 (15636)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24497 (43226)
0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6652-7812 (14464)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3381a584...1b3b47
Slug
highest-temperature-in-busan-on-november-9-2026-18c