Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 8?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $26 held · ends Nov 8

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$25.51

Combined PnL

-$5.47

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$15.38

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$1.17

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.12

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$6.64

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81¢	$14.21	$15.38	+$1.17	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$15.1	$8.46	-$6.64	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.66	$1.66	-$0	54% 10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.21

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$1.17

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.1

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$6.64

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.