Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 6?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 42¢ · $421 held · ends Nov 6

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

Total Value

$421.32

Combined PnL

-$2.44

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 41.5¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$330.28

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$20.42

No11 traders

Total Value$91.03

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$22.85

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 35.7¢	$374.94	$322.7	+$17.43	40% 830-1231 (2061)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$24.36	$18.65	-$5.71	58% 12069-8702 (20771)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$38.64	$16.9	-$4.85	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$13.27	$12.9	-$0.37	61% 16045-10362 (26407)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$17.17	$9.92	-$2.05	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$4.6	$7.58	+$2.98	53% 29797-26632 (56429)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$9.47	$7.04	-$2.43	41% 1167-1673 (2840)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$7.97	$6.08	-$1.89	47% 2267-2540 (4807)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 57¢	$7.41	$5.59	-$1.82	31% 2683-6056 (8739)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$6.32	$4.81	-$1.51	42% 1234-1717 (2951)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.59	$3.52	-$1.06	39% 1113-1749 (2862)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.51	$3.46	-$1.05	41% 1238-1808 (3046)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$2.26	$2.15	-$0.11	53% 8440-7509 (15949)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$374.94

Value

$322.7

PnL

+$17.43

Record

40%

830-1231 (2061)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$24.36

Value

$18.65

PnL

-$5.71

Record

58%

12069-8702 (20771)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$4.85

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$13.27

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.37

Record

61%

16045-10362 (26407)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$2.05

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$2.98

Record

53%

29797-26632 (56429)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.47

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$2.43

Record

41%

1167-1673 (2840)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.97

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$1.89

Record

47%

2267-2540 (4807)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$1.51

Record

42%

1234-1717 (2951)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$1.06

Record

39%

1113-1749 (2862)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$1.05

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

8440-7509 (15949)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.