Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 51¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$543.83
-$1.51
49.7¢ → 51¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $349.87 | $367.85 | +$1.46 | 50% 725-718 (1443) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $265.66 | $275.34 | -$6.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.6¢ | $91.15 | $92.52 | +$8.31 | |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $84.84 | $81.88 | -$2.96 | 57% 2334-1766 (4100) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $57.85 | $61.75 | +$0.2 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $20.79 | $21.14 | +$0.34 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $9.78 | $11.22 | +$0.91 | 72% 8552-3306 (11858) |
Invested
$349.87
Value
$367.85
PnL
+$1.46
Record
50%
725-718 (1443)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.84
Value
$81.88
PnL
-$2.96
Record
57%
2334-1766 (4100)
Invested
$57.85
Value
$61.75
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$21.14
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$11.22
PnL
+$0.91
Record
72%
8552-3306 (11858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.