Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 2?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $602 held · ends Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$602.39

Combined PnL

$303.96

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 100¢

+96% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$575.47

Total Shares581

Combined PnL+$336.79

No4 traders

Total Value$26.92

Total Shares415

Combined PnL-$32.83

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 43¢	$294.26	$470.58	+$331	50% 725-718 (1443)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 88.4¢	$28.02	$30.44	+$2.43	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 70.2¢	$21.6	$29.56	+$7.96	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$15.2	$15.74	+$0.55	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 90.3¢	$14.65	$14.52	-$0.13	28% 5949-15562 (21511)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 93.8¢	$14.76	$12.69	-$2.07	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$10.45	$10.69	+$0.23	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$9.61	$6.99	-$2.63	35% 698-1270 (1968)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$20.57	$6.65	+$12.74	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$46.19	$3.91	-$24.96	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$21.77	$0.62	-$21.15	38% 1387-2298 (3685)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$294.26

Value

$470.58

PnL

+$331

Record

50%

725-718 (1443)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.02

Value

$30.44

PnL

+$2.43

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

$29.56

PnL

+$7.96

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.74

PnL

+$0.55

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$0.13

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.76

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$2.07

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.61

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$2.63

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$20.57

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$12.74

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$46.19

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$24.96

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$21.77

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$21.15

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.