Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on November 2?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $704 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$703.86

Combined PnL

$97.53

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$701.23

Total Shares720

Combined PnL+$97.32

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.64

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$0.21

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 78.7¢	$380.94	$470.64	+$66.95	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
HE hello.67	Noavg 72.9¢	$80.14	$106.85	+$28.47	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$58.52	$57.93	-$0.59	38% 680-1090 (1770)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96¢	$28.16	$28.51	+$0.34	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$11.24	$13.3	+$2.06	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$9.9	$9.89	-$0.02	42% 938-1305 (2243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$25.58	$8.81	+$0.03	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.22	$5.29	+$0.08	28% 5949-15562 (21511)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.41	$1.73	+$0.32	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.98	$0.76	-$0.22	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.04	$0.15	+$0.11	35% 554-1008 (1562)

241532532432

Invested

$380.94

Value

$470.64

PnL

+$66.95

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

hello.67

Invested

$80.14

Value

$106.85

PnL

+$28.47

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$58.52

Value

$57.93

PnL

-$0.59

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.51

PnL

+$0.34

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.24

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$2.06

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.58

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.32

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.22

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.11

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.