Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 36¢ · $242 held · ends Oct 30

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$241.91

Combined PnL

-$65.39

Smart Money Entry

25.8¢ → 36¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$173.34

Total Shares937

Combined PnL-$68.2

No2 traders

Total Value$68.58

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$2.81

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$236.23	$167.88	-$68.35	47% 606-688 (1294)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 66¢	$32.83	$40.54	+$7.71	61% 20778-13190 (33968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$47.2	$28.04	-$4.9	57% 13319-10177 (23496)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.4	$3.7	+$0.3	60% 1652-1111 (2763)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.9	$1.76	-$0.14	50% 1694-1679 (3373)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$236.23

Value

$167.88

PnL

-$68.35

Record

47%

606-688 (1294)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$32.83

Value

$40.54

PnL

+$7.71

Record

61%

20778-13190 (33968)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$28.04

PnL

-$4.9

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

60%

1652-1111 (2763)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

1694-1679 (3373)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.