Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 9?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 67¢ · $534 held · ends Nov 9

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$534.14

Combined PnL

-$33.9

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 67¢

-11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$533.74

Total Shares735

Combined PnL-$33.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.41

Total Shares1

Combined PnL-$0.03

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 77.3¢	$406.14	$378.48	-$28.17	20% 978-3834 (4812)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$64.96	$63.91	-$1.05	61% 729-464 (1193)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$22.1	$21.23	-$0.87	47% 47634-54192 (101826)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$22.07	$20.87	-$1.2	43% 18713-24467 (43180)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$17.61	$16.65	-$1.19	55% 26060-21350 (47410)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 73¢	$11.84	$10.87	-$0.97	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.14	$6.14	+$0	69% 16769-7377 (24146)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 70¢	$6.38	$6.1	-$0.27	30% 2897-6613 (9510)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.07	$6.07	+$0	46% 6200-7413 (13613)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.56	$3.41	-$0.15	46% 6903-8164 (15067)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.6¢	$0.43	$0.41	-$0.03	13% 705-4684 (5389)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$406.14

Value

$378.48

PnL

-$28.17

Record

20%

978-3834 (4812)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$64.96

Value

$63.91

PnL

-$1.05

Record

61%

729-464 (1193)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.1

Value

$21.23

PnL

-$0.87

Record

47%

47634-54192 (101826)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.07

Value

$20.87

PnL

-$1.2

Record

43%

18713-24467 (43180)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.61

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

26060-21350 (47410)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.84

Value

$10.87

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16769-7377 (24146)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.27

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7413 (13613)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

6903-8164 (15067)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.03

Record

13%

705-4684 (5389)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.