Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 6?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 41¢ · $370 held · ended Nov 6

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$369.98

Combined PnL

$35.59

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$256.2

Total Shares569

Combined PnL+$51.92

No3 traders

Total Value$113.78

Total Shares210

Combined PnL-$16.33

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 34.4¢	$195.95	$256.2	+$51.92	40% 854-1295 (2149)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 60¢	$75	$67.5	-$7.5	13% 550-3635 (4185)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$52.4	$43.2	-$9.2	62% 667-404 (1071)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.08	+$0.38	53% 8619-7695 (16314)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.95

Value

$256.2

PnL

+$51.92

Record

40%

854-1295 (2149)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

13%

550-3635 (4185)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$52.4

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$9.2

Record

62%

667-404 (1071)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

8619-7695 (16314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.