Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on November 15?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 4.4¢ · $145 held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$145.44

Combined PnL

-$3.31

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$125.71

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$13.77

Yes9 traders

Total Value$19.73

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$10.46

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$198.26	$79.92	-$14.13	99% 1717-24 (1741)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$18.14	$19.12	+$0.98	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$16.88	$16.34	-$0.54	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.89	$12.25	+$10.36	50% 966-966 (1932)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$5.51	$5.16	-$0.34	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.89	$5.15	+$0.27	48% 1288-1418 (2706)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.68	$4.53	+$3.85	49% 900-921 (1821)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.15	$1.16	+$1.01	58% 906-664 (1570)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.24	$0.84	+$0.6	60% 929-631 (1560)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$13.57	$0.38	-$3.19	43% 848-1138 (1986)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0.22	+$0.2	52% 960-882 (1842)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.16	$0.16	-$0.01	56% 882-689 (1571)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.1	-$1.26	23% 814-2712 (3526)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.19	$0.09	-$1.1	40% 2685-4008 (6693)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$198.26

Value

$79.92

PnL

-$14.13

Record

99%

1717-24 (1741)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.14

Value

$19.12

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.88

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$10.36

Record

50%

966-966 (1932)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.34

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

1288-1418 (2706)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$3.85

Record

49%

900-921 (1821)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$1.01

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.6

Record

60%

929-631 (1560)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.57

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$3.19

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

960-882 (1842)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

882-689 (1571)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.26

Record

23%

814-2712 (3526)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.1

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.7%

4.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1668.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

1768.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.