Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $153 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$153.45

Combined PnL

-$1.15

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$153.38

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$1.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.07

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$2.37

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$34.98	$35.29	+$0.31	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97¢	$28.85	$29.71	+$0.86	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$25.2	$25.2	-$0.01	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.02	$18.97	-$0.05	50% 763-758 (1521)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.99	$18.97	-$0.02	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$10.14	$10.19	+$0.05	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.03	$5.04	+$0.01	61% 773-494 (1267)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5	$5.03	+$0.03	99% 1415-20 (1435)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$25.08	$4.98	+$0.03	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.04	-$0.41	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.31	$0.03	-$1.95	42% 2632-3664 (6296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.98

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$28.85

Value

$29.71

PnL

+$0.86

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.02

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$18.99

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1415-20 (1435)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.08

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.95

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.