Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $481 held · ended Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$481.11

Combined PnL

$24.3

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 98.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$480.78

Total Shares490

Combined PnL+$26.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.34

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$2.5

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 91¢	$271.85	$287.74	+$20.44	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$69.59	$70.26	+$0.68	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$81.99	$32.49	-$0.37	41% 711-1031 (1742)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$63.75	$30.27	+$3.79	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$18.83	$20.2	+$1.38	35% 267-486 (753)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$19.65	$19.8	+$0.15	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$9.95	$10	+$0.05	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$4.29	$5.01	+$0.72	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.02	$5	-$0.02	49% 798-831 (1629)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.68	$0.18	-$1.91	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.08	-$0.22	51% 847-812 (1659)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.08	-$0.37	57% 747-553 (1300)

hello.67

Invested

$271.85

Value

$287.74

PnL

+$20.44

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$69.59

Value

$70.26

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$81.99

Value

$32.49

PnL

-$0.37

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.75

Value

$30.27

PnL

+$3.79

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$18.83

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$1.38

Record

35%

267-486 (753)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.65

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.72

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.68

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.91

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.37

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.