Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 13?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 94¢ · $502 held · ended Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$501.64

Combined PnL

$74.24

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 94.4¢

+32% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$466.84

Total Shares492

Combined PnL+$110.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$34.8

Total Shares348

Combined PnL-$36.1

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 65.7¢	$92.13	$133.89	+$41.76	71% 76-31 (107)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$54.34	$74.75	+$20.41	73% 778-291 (1069)
24 241532532432	Noavg 69.7¢	$121.9	$72.53	+$23.51	38% 543-874 (1417)
HE hello.67	Noavg 88¢	$106.12	$50.9	+$5.41	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$50.97	$42.58	-$0.11	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$69.54	$33.3	-$36.23	56% 1189-918 (2107)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$15.18	$24.32	+$9.14	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95¢	$18.34	$18.15	-$0.19	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 61¢	$11.21	$17.55	+$6.34	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 77¢	$11.55	$14.33	+$2.78	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.62	$9.24	-$0.38	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.14	$4.84	+$1.7	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95¢	$3.8	$3.76	-$0.04	48% 684-728 (1412)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$1.5	+$0.14	39% 3479-5356 (8835)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$92.13

Value

$133.89

PnL

+$41.76

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$54.34

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$20.41

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

241532532432

Invested

$121.9

Value

$72.53

PnL

+$23.51

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

hello.67

Invested

$106.12

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$5.41

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.97

Value

$42.58

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.54

Value

$33.3

PnL

-$36.23

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$24.32

PnL

+$9.14

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$18.34

Value

$18.15

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$6.34

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$2.78

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.