Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on November 12?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$54.71

Combined PnL

-$31.76

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$53.82

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.9

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$31.8

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	18% 80-367 (447)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.43	$20.42	-$0.01	63% 445-264 (709)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$3.38	$3.44	+$0.06	53% 866-756 (1622)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.24	$0.48	-$3.58	49% 488-517 (1005)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.02	$0.13	-$7.89	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.77	$0.13	-$10.36	27% 947-2550 (3497)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.26	$0.07	-$4.92	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.68	$0.04	-$2.64	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.45	$0.04	-$2.41	40% 3231-4852 (8083)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

18%

80-367 (447)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$0.01

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.24

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$3.58

Record

49%

488-517 (1005)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$7.89

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.77

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$10.36

Record

27%

947-2550 (3497)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.26

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.92

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.68

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.64

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.41

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.