Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$308
-$31.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $307.69 | $307.69 | +$0 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.02 | $0.09 | -$7.93 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $5.57 | $0.06 | -$5.39 | 29% 888-2138 (3026) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.64 | $0.04 | -$3.6 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $35.15 | $0.04 | -$7.82 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.68 | $0.03 | -$2.65 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.45 | $0.03 | -$2.43 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.02 | -$1.8 | 51% 474-453 (927) |
Invested
$307.69
Value
$307.69
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$8.02
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$7.93
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$5.39
Record
29%
888-2138 (3026)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$3.6
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.82
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.65
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.43
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.8
Record
51%
474-453 (927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.