Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on November 12?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.43

Combined PnL

-$39.89

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.43

Total Shares487

Combined PnL-$39.89

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$6.03	$0.88	-$5.15	29% 888-2138 (3026)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.02	$0.44	-$7.58	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.15	$0.28	-$7.59	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$39.05	$0.22	-$6.96	79% 502-133 (635)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.2	-$3.44	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.68	$0.15	-$2.53	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.45	$0.14	-$2.32	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.1	-$1.72	51% 474-453 (927)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.64	$0.03	-$2.59	40% 1374-2022 (3396)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$5.15

Record

29%

888-2138 (3026)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$7.58

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.15

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$7.59

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.05

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$6.96

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3.44

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.68

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.53

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.32

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

474-453 (927)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.59

Record

40%

1374-2022 (3396)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.