Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 28?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $266 held · ends Oct 28

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$266.03

Combined PnL

-$1.7

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 97.4¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$264.43

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$0.54

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.6

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$1.16

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.3¢	$119.12	$117.86	-$1.26	61% 20619-13064 (33683)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$88.9	$89.51	+$0.61	61% 1566-1014 (2580)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$51.96	$52.1	+$0.14	57% 13006-9921 (22927)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.98	$4.94	-$0.04	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.77	$1.6	-$1.16	50% 1640-1625 (3265)

balthazar

Invested

$119.12

Value

$117.86

PnL

-$1.26

Record

61%

20619-13064 (33683)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$88.9

Value

$89.51

PnL

+$0.61

Record

61%

1566-1014 (2580)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.96

Value

$52.1

PnL

+$0.14

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.77

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.16

Record

50%

1640-1625 (3265)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.