Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 9?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 92¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 9

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$318.59

Combined PnL

-$9.32

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$316.16

Total Shares360

Combined PnL-$9.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.44

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.01

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 89.4¢	$10.08	$146.06	-$7.55	50% 9322-9369 (18691)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 89.3¢	$100	$51	-$2.6	14% 9500-60813 (70313)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$28.35	$27.77	-$0.59	30% 35305-83677 (118982)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$33.85	$24.79	-$0.3	30% 2854-6545 (9399)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$24.5	$24.79	+$0.03	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$46.57	$17.43	+$0.64	69% 16764-7367 (24131)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$18.86	$8.01	+$0.15	43% 5570-7251 (12821)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$25.09	$7.56	+$0.59	47% 47421-53861 (101282)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$39.3	$4.73	+$0.1	46% 6186-7387 (13573)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84¢	$20.45	$4.01	+$0.22	52% 8997-8175 (17172)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.45	$2.44	-$0.01	30% 2922-6665 (9587)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$10.08

Value

$146.06

PnL

-$7.55

Record

50%

9322-9369 (18691)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$100

Value

$51

PnL

-$2.6

Record

14%

9500-60813 (70313)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

$27.77

PnL

-$0.59

Record

30%

35305-83677 (118982)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$0.3

Record

30%

2854-6545 (9399)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$46.57

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$0.64

Record

69%

16764-7367 (24131)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.86

Value

$8.01

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

5570-7251 (12821)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$25.09

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

47421-53861 (101282)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$39.3

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

6186-7387 (13573)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.22

Record

52%

8997-8175 (17172)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

2922-6665 (9587)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.