Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $390 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$390.4
-$4.47
76.4¢ → 94.1¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-35 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $328.4 | $319.31 | -$9.09 | 38% 858-1404 (2262) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $59.44 | $45.87 | +$4.43 | 58% 21302-15462 (36764) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $28.2 | $23.44 | +$1.58 | 17% 4502-22041 (26543) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $3.16 | $1.77 | -$1.39 | 42% 2357-3224 (5581) |
Invested
$328.4
Value
$319.31
PnL
-$9.09
Record
38%
858-1404 (2262)
Invested
$59.44
Value
$45.87
PnL
+$4.43
Record
58%
21302-15462 (36764)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$28.2
Value
$23.44
PnL
+$1.58
Record
17%
4502-22041 (26543)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$1.39
Record
42%
2357-3224 (5581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.