Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 6?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.2¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$30.85

Combined PnL

-$2.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$29.64

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.21

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$2.7

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.66	$29.64	-$0.02	43% 2312-3103 (5415)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$3.4	$1.11	-$2.29	39% 835-1312 (2147)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.07	-$0.33	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.08	58% 16799-12128 (28927)

123987456<$100

Invested

$29.66

Value

$29.64

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

2312-3103 (5415)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$2.29

Record

39%

835-1312 (2147)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.33

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

16799-12128 (28927)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.